Executive summary
A well-functioning government is a prerequisite for any successful counter-insurgency strategy and good governance is unlikely to be established in Afghanistan any time soon. As a consequence, the plans for the build-up of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) must be adjusted. This build-up is not only an exit strategy; it is a cover for a “graceful exit”, serving a perceptual function in western publics. But in counter-insurgency theory a disconnect between governance and security is anathema.
The end-state projection of 400,000 soldiers and police is unsustainable and ill-adapted to Afghanistan’s socio-economic and political foundations. Furthermore, the continued growth of centralized and corrupt security forces could very well lead to increased resistance. The ANSF – like any armed force – is in dire need of a credible and motivating cause, simply to avoid disintegration.
President Barack Obama has taken some useful steps in readjusting threat perceptions emanating from Afghanistan. But this must be followed by a realignment of the current plans for the ANSF. US ambitions for the indigenous security forces must parallel General McChrystal’s strategy of focusing coalition troops on a few population centres. The overriding concern of the Afghans continues to be general insecurity, which is caused by a weak and corrupt regime locked in competition with a resurgent Taliban.
The focus on building the ANSF must be on quality and sustainability rather than quantity. Spreading out an ill-prepared force of semi-literate and abusive policemen and soldiers would do little to convince Afghans that they are better off without the Taliban.
is an adviser with the Afghanistan and Pakistan Program at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI). He served as a political adviser to the High Representative in Bosnia from 2004-2008. In this capacity he focused on intelligence and military reforms. Lurås has worked for the Norwegian Intelligence Service and has served with the Norwegian Armed Forces in Bosnia, Hungary and Guatemala. He holds degrees in Business Administration, Anthropology, Sociology and History of Ideas.