NOREF - The uncertain road out of Afghanistan

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Mariano Aguirre

is managing director of the Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre (NOREF). A journalist and analyst on international conflicts, peacebuilding and peacekeeping, he has written, co-authored and edited several books. His most recent contribution is a chapter in Megacities. The Politics of U...
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The uncertain road out of Afghanistan

Mariano Aguirre , 7 December 2009

President Obama has announced a surge of 30,000 US troops, which will be augmented by 7,000 Nato soldiers. Paradoxically, the troop surge forms part of a gradual US exit strategy over the next 18 months. The strategy has three broad objectives, the foremost being to fight the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

However, the reality may fall far short, with the international forces reduced to protecting the main cities. One fundamental problem is that “victory” has not been defined. Pakistan is also concerned about the spillover effect with Taliban fighters crossing the border to seek shelter. President Obama would do well to recall past US blunders in Vietnam and the Russian experience in Afghanistan, as he embarks on the latest phase of the Afghanistan war.