Summary

The two analyses presented in the report “The Sudan Referendum and Neighbouring Countries: Egypt and Uganda” address the lack of updated research on regional politics and Sudan’s relations with neighbouring countries. Together they demonstrate that the Southern Sudanese referendum symptomises a shift which is gathering momentum in the politics of the region where the influence of countries like Uganda and Ethiopia are in ascension. The prospects of a new state in the Greater Horn of Africa also add to the regional tension and Sudan continues to be regarded as a potentially destabilising element. An overall conclusion is that the neighbouring countries have a clear interest in contributing towards a peaceful transition in the Sudan, but short-sighted policies may preclude the desired outcome.

Sudan’s (north and south) relations with Egypt and Uganda are in many respects opposed and they reflect the broad spectrum of Sudan’s foreign policy. Historically, Egypt ruled Sudan and was closely connected to the political elites in Khartoum. In contrast, Uganda became independent in 1963 and has been an important ally and sanctuary for the Southern Sudanese elites. These differences are also reflected in these two countries’ position and policy towards the upcoming referendum over the future of Southern Sudan. Egypt has clearly signalled its preference for a united Sudan, but has waning leverage in the region and limited sway over the Sudanese. Uganda, on the other hand, tacitly desires an independent Southern Sudan and has considerable influence within the ruling party in the South, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.

This publication is a result of the joint Fafo and PRIO policy research project ‘Egypt and Self-Determination for the Southern Sudan’ funded by the Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre. The analyses are based on field visits to Cairo, Khartoum, Juba and Kampala during 2010, combined with data from news reports and relevant documents and reports.