Executive summary:

Norway may be a marginal actor in Afghanistan as a whole, but its troop contingent and development aid programmes mean that it does play an important role in the north-west of the country as part of a joint overall effort with its allies and friends. This role is now facing a twofold test.

First, President Obama’s new security-centred approach implies a shorter-term timeframe for United States involvement in Afghanistan than was earlier envisaged, and there are strong signals too from Canada and the Netherlands that their forces may be withdrawn in 2010-11. This prospect poses serious questions to Norway’s longer-term, statebuilding focus in Afghanistan.

Second, politics in the region where Norway’s involvement is greatest are becoming polarised between two ethnic-based movements, Uzbek and Tajik, led respectively by powerful warlords with varying relations with the central government in Kabul: Abdul Rashid Dostum and Ustad Atta Mohammad. This complex and many-layered arena, where current tensions could explode into large-scale violence, presents Norway with a difficult challenge. Norway should respond with a focused political attempt to stabilise northern Afghanistan. This would imply that Norway, perhaps in cooperation with Sweden, takes on the role of mediator and facilitator in the region. Such a role could be implemented only in the context of close contact with Afghan authorities at all levels, with Isaf and with Unama; and it would require coordinated efforts in the fields of security, development and politics.